The probability of presenting a new “La Niña phenomenon” increases

During the month of October, in the central-eastern part of the equatorial Pacific Ocean, there was a decrease of 0.5 ° C in the sea surface temperature below its multi-year average value, indicating the emergence of La Niña conditions.

This was confirmed on November 9 by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI), agencies specialized in the study, monitoring and forecasting of oceanic and atmospheric conditions globally.

For this reason, these agencies raised the alarm "Girl's Warning”, Which indicates that such conditions have arisen and it is expected that they will continue in the coming months.

NOAA / IRI's official probabilistic forecast, issued on the same date, shows a probability between 65% and 75% that Niña conditions will continue through February 2018 (see Figure 1). By extending these conditions for five consecutive months, a new phenomenon La Niña.

For the same area of ​​the equatorial Pacific Ocean, the North American Multi-Model Ensemble predicts monthly values ​​of sea surface temperature between 0.5 ° C and 1.0 ° C below the respective multi-year average, which indicates that if a new La Niña Phenomenon were to consolidate, it would be of short duration and of intensity between weak and moderate ( see Figure2).

In this situation, Cenicaña reiterates the recommendations for the management of the sugarcane crop under conditions of excess humidity.

More information

NOAA / IRI Official Probabilistic Forecast 

Forecast of North American Multi-Model Ensemble